The Case-Shiller Index provides a great historical view of home values in the San Francisco Bay Area. This index covers five counties, however does not include Santa Clara County (Silicon Valley). Their “high-priced” and “mid-tier” priced homes is a good representation of Silicon Valley homes. These numbers are for home sales up to April, so minimal impact from Covid-19 is reflected.
Interesting to note that homes have appreciated by 6% on a compound annual basis (CAGR) since 1987, including a Great Recession. You can see the significant advantage of owning a home in the Bay Area compared to the national average. Clearly a benefit of our robust and growing economy.
The chart below breaks-out the difference between three tiers of home prices: high, medium and low. The lower tiers show more variability reflecting a greater impact of lending rules and rates on buyers, especially during the 2001-07 financing bubble.
The next chart focuses on the “high-price” tier home. Note that homes prices do not decline often or by much. Declines of 10% for recession and internet bubble and 27% for the Great Recession. After which values returned and continued growing relatively quickly.
I find the Case-Shiller Index to be the best source for understanding long-term historical home pricing trends. My website at www.siliconvalleymls.com provides more specific pricing trends going back to 1998 for 12 cities in Silicon Valley, from Menlo Park to Los Gatos.