Updated June 2020
Shelter-in-place orders have had a noticeable negative impact on the Los Altos market. Median prices dipped during the second quarter after a decline in 2019 from the peak in 2018. Market demand softened with an increase in average days on market in 2019 and a decline in the final sales over list price percentages. I expect that we will quickly bounce back to 2019 levels during the coming months.
Los Altos homes are one of the most desirable in Silicon Valley. A quiet family-oriented community with top-rated elementary through high schools throughout the city. A great central location with relatively short commutes to most high-tech companies. A very cute downtown village and close proximity to the new San Antonio shopping center, downtown Mountain View and downtown Palo Alto. Click on the following link to view more information on the community and its schools.
Los Altos homes start at $2.0M with most “move-in” ready homes in the $2.5M to $4.0M price range.
Median prices declined by 3% in both 2019 and the first half of 2020. They are still higher than 2017, but down 7% from the 2018 peak. The average annual price appreciation for Los Altos homes over the past 20 years has averaged 6.5% per year since 1998 (CAGR).
Market demand softened for Los Altos homes since 2019. The average days on market spiked in 2019, but appears to have returned to recent levels. The average final sales over list price percentage declined to near equal in 2019 from 5-11% prior years.
The first half supply of New Listings is running 20% lower than 2019. This is due to the significant disruption shelter-in-place had on our ability to market listings. Many sellers decide to sit and wait. I expect a pent-up supply to start coming to market in July. The 2020 supply number are annualized based on first half results.
The 2019 finals sales vs. list price has shifted noticeably with few sales over 10%. The scatter chart shows shows the % over/under list price for each home sold in 2019. Note that homes that sell after one weekend on the market typically sell for up to 10% over list price, which is usually the result of multiple offers. Note this shows the current list price and does not include any price reductions.
The $/SQFT varies significantly by size of home. The above scatter chart provides a good view into the distribution of home sizes and the $/SQFT for 2018 sales. The 2019 average $/SQFT declined to $1,386 from last year’s average of $1,503.
Second quarter median price continues the downward trend from 2018. I expect the Q3 number to be higher as the market returns.
This monthly median prices for Los Altos homes provides a closer look at our current market. Keep in mind that fluctuations may be due to a change in the mix of homes selling in a particular month, not necessarily changes in home values.
The average days on market continued at historic lows during March-April of this year. .
The monthly average sales price over/under list price percentage has declined significantly. Strongly suggests a shift in market demand and a reduction in the number of competing offers.
The supply of New Listings increased in 2019, but is still at historically low levels. New Listings typically spike in Mar-May and again in Sep-Oct.
The monthly inventory of Active Listings was significantly higher in 2019.
The monthly number of Sales is also very seasonal. January is usually the low-point of the year followed by a ramp-up in Feb-March.
Sources: The data above is obtained directly from MLSlistings, the multiple listing service (MLS) serving Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. The information is deemed to be accurate, however is not guaranteed.