Updated May 2020
Shelter-In-Place orders are impacting our local real estate market. The SIP order severely restrict Sellers ability to market/show their homes to prospective Buyers and reduced Buyers willingness to look at homes. The most obvious impact is a 40% reduction in the supply of New Listings in the month of April.
Interestingly, market demand remains relatively strong. Average days on market are still at historic lows. The average final sales prices is still over list and the YTD median price is up from 2019, however it is still early to place much confidence in these numbers.
My expectation is that the Silicon Valley real estate market will hit pause until July-Aug. Sellers will want to get their homes on the market during the Labor Day to Thanksgiving window, which should be after the most restrictive stay-in-place rules are relaxed. There is the fear of a second wave, so expect sellers to jump in the market sooner than later, say Aug-Sept.
The charts below and throughout this website provide you with extensive information on our housing market. Information on 12 distinct cities in Silicon Valley are available under the “Our Homes” tab. Info on schools within those cities is available under the “Our Schools” tab. I am also available to provide a custom overview upon request.
Home values did increase during the first quarter by 5%. This will probably go down in the coming quarter. The question is by how much and how faste does it recover.
The annual median price declined by 20% during the financial crisis, from 2007 to 2009, and then took four years to return to pre-crisis levels. Hopefully this is a worst-case scenario for our current situation. I expect a significant drop in Q2 followed by an increase in Q3 and Q4. Overall, the 2020 annual median value will probably be 5%-10% lower than 2019.
The percentage change in median price by city reflects where our market was just prior to the current crisis. Home values were rising 5% to 10%. These number are based on sales prices reported after escrow closes, so the actual sale occurred 3-4 weeks earlier.
Market demand was about the same as the prior year, maybe slightly stronger. This suggests market demand is still there and hopefully just on hold in Q2.
The strong final sales vs. list price percentage is further evidence that market demand is still relatively strong.
This supply charts shows the annual supply through 2019. The city pages show the monthly supply of new listings up through the most recent month. The supply of New Listings in April, first full month of shelter-in-place orders, declined by 40% compared to April of last year. I expect most of the decline to reappear as pent-up supply this coming summer and fall.
As is painfully obvious, single family residences in Silicon Valley start at $1.0M. The good news is that there are a lot of homes in the $1.0M to $1.5M price range, predominately in Santa Clara, Campbell, Cambrian and Willow Glen areas of San Jose. There are homes under $1.0M outside of the 12 cities that I include in Silicon Valley: Blossom Hill area in south San Jose and east San Jose. Go to the specific city to see the distribution of prices by size of home (e.g., number of bedrooms and $/SQFT).
Condos and Townhomes start at $500K. The majority of Condos/THs are two-bedroom units with next most popular being three-bedroom units followed by one-bedroom units. Townhomes are typically more expensive as there is usually no one above or below you. End-units are also more expensive as they have fewer shared common walls.
This website is dedicated to providing you with insightful and accurate information on the residential real estate market in Silicon Valley. The data is obtained directly from our local multiple listing service (MLS), which is used by virtually all Realtors in the area. Closed Sales information, such as final sales price, is obtained by the MLS from County Records.
All most all of the charts and analysis is for single family residences with information for Condos and Townhomes in Mountain View and Sunnyvale also being available. This information is deemed to be accurate, however is not guaranteed.
Complete guide to schools, ratings and attendance boundaries. Most Silicon Valley cities have multiple school districts with individual schools with varying academic performance. Ratings are provided by GreatSchools.net along with the California Academic Performance Index (API).
A great overview of how Silicon Valley communities differ and their various features: restaurants, shopping, transportation and more.
The market data comes from MLSlistings the primary Multiple Listing Service (MLS) serving Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. The information is deemed to be accurate, however is not guaranteed.
This website and market analysis is provided by Bryan and Susan Sweeley, Broker Associates with Compass.
Bryan Sweeley, MBA
Compass, Broker Associate, DRE# 01877044
Susan Sweeley, MBA
Compass, Broker Associate, DRE# 01255460
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