Updated June 2020
Shelter-In-Place orders are impacting our local real estate market. The SIP order severely restrict Sellers ability to market/show their homes to prospective Buyers and reduced Buyers willingness to look at homes. The most obvious impact is a 35% reduction in the supply of New Listings during the first 6 months of 2020.
Interestingly, market demand remains relatively strong. Average days on market are still at historic lows. The average final sales prices is still over list and the YTD median price is up from 2019, however it is still early to place much confidence in these numbers.
My expectation is that the Silicon Valley real estate market will ramp-up starting in July. While we have seen an uptick in demand, supply continued to lag in June. I expect sellers will have the confidence to jump-in shortly after the 4th of July holiday weekend.
The charts below and throughout this website provide you with extensive information on our housing market. Information on 12 distinct cities in Silicon Valley are available under the “Our Homes” tab. Info on schools within those cities is available under the “Our Schools” tab. I am also available to provide a custom overview upon request.
The YTD median price remains strong. It is 5% higher than last year and equal to 2018. No suggestion of a decline in prices. This is comparing a 6-month YTD number to full 12-month numbers, so there can be some movement in the second-half of this year.
The annual median price declined by 20% during the financial crisis, from 2007 to 2009, and then took four years to return to pre-crisis levels. Hopefully this is a worst-case scenario for our current situation. I expect a significant drop in Q2 followed by an increase in Q3 and Q4. Overall, the 2020 annual median value will probably be 5%-10% lower than 2019.
The percentage change in median price varies by city. The chart above shows how the median price for the first 6-months of 2020 compares to the full 12-months of the prior year. This gives you an idea of which markets are rising faster than others.
The average days on market continues to show strong market demand. The 2020 numbers include a 60-day pause on counting days, so best to look at the monthly averages. For example, may and June dropped to only 6 days which is far less than the 20-30 days we have seen in the previous year.
Final sales prices are averaging 3.5% over list which is twice as high as last year, but about half of 2017-18. This suggested continued strong market demand that exceeds the supply of new listings.
Supply of New Listings during the first half of 2020 is 35% below the same time period last year. The chart above shows a projection of the annualized number, if the second half remains below the prior year. I expect the supply will return, unless we have to return to shelter-in-place orders.
As is painfully obvious, single family residences in Silicon Valley start at $1.0M. The good news is that there are a lot of homes in the $1.0M to $1.5M price range, predominately in Santa Clara, Campbell, Cambrian and Willow Glen areas of San Jose. There are homes under $1.0M outside of the 12 cities that I include in Silicon Valley: Blossom Hill area in south San Jose and east San Jose. Go to the specific city to see the distribution of prices by size of home (e.g., number of bedrooms and $/SQFT).
Condos and Townhomes start at $500K. The majority of Condos/THs are two-bedroom units with next most popular being three-bedroom units followed by one-bedroom units. Townhomes are typically more expensive as there is usually no one above or below you. End-units are also more expensive as they have fewer shared common walls.
This website is dedicated to providing you with insightful and accurate information on the residential real estate market in Silicon Valley. The data is obtained directly from our local multiple listing service (MLS), which is used by virtually all Realtors in the area. Closed Sales information, such as final sales price, is obtained by the MLS from County Records.
All most all of the charts and analysis is for single family residences with information for Condos and Townhomes in Mountain View and Sunnyvale also being available. This information is deemed to be accurate, however is not guaranteed.
Complete guide to schools, ratings and attendance boundaries. Most Silicon Valley cities have multiple school districts with individual schools with varying academic performance. Ratings are provided by GreatSchools.net along with the California Academic Performance Index (API).
A great overview of how Silicon Valley communities differ and their various features: restaurants, shopping, transportation and more.
The market data comes from MLSlistings the primary Multiple Listing Service (MLS) serving Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. The information is deemed to be accurate, however is not guaranteed.
This website and market analysis is provided by Bryan and Susan Sweeley, Broker Associates with Compass.
Bryan Sweeley, MBA
Compass, Broker Associate, DRE# 01877044
Susan Sweeley, MBA
Compass, Broker Associate, DRE# 01255460
More information or help…
Please feel free to email or call anytime with any question or request. We are always available to help you and your friends.